Domestic travel is expected to keep the U.S. tourism industry on a stable footing through 2030, even as inflation and global uncertainty continue to weigh on the broader economy. New projections are showing that travel spending growth is remaining modest but will be positive through 2028, with stronger gains anticipated later in the decade.
According to the U.S. Travel Association, inflation-adjusted travel spending is forecast to increase by 1% in 2026 after slower growth trends were seen in late 2025 and early 2026. Growth is then expected to accelerate to 3% annually in both 2027 and 2028, driven largely by steady domestic demand.
Travel continues to represent a major part of the U.S. economy, with total spending projected to hit $1.37 trillion in 2026 before climbing to $1.42 trillion in 2027, adjusted for inflation.
Domestic travel remains the industry’s largest segment, accounting for roughly 87% of total travel spending. Forecasts show domestic travel reaching $1.20 trillion, marking a return to inflation-adjusted levels last seen in 2019.
International inbound travel, which saw a 2.4% decline in 2025, is also expected to rebound. Spending from international visitors is projected to grow 1.6% in 2026 to approximately $178 billion, aided in part by increased travel demand surrounding the FIFA World Cup.
The updated outlook extends projections through 2030, offering a longer-term view of travel industry trends. The forecast data was developed using Tourism Economics’ travel forecasting model and is presented in 2025 inflation-adjusted dollars for consistency.
